Profiling Covid-19 patients with respect to level of severity: an integrated statistical approach.

A full understanding of the characteristics of Covid-19 patients with a better chance of experiencing poor vital outcomes is critical for implementing accurate and precise treatments. In this paper, two different advanced data-driven statistical approaches along with standard statistical methods have been implemented to identify groups of patients most at-risk for death or severity of respiratory distress. First, the tree-based analysis allowed to identify profiles of patients with different risk of in-hospital death (by Survival Tree-ST analysis) and severity of respiratory distress (by Classification and Regression Tree-CART analysis), and to unravel the role on risk stratification of highly dependent covariates (i.e., demographic characteristics, admission values and comorbidities). The ST analysis identified as the most at-risk group for in-hospital death the patients with age > 65 years, creatinine [Formula: see text] 1.2 mg/dL, CRP [Formula: see text] 25 mg/L and anti-hypertensive treatment. Based on the CART analysis, the subgroups most at-risk of severity of respiratory distress were defined by patients with creatinine level [Formula: see text] 1.2 mg/dL. Furthermore, to investigate the multivariate dependence structure among the demographic characteristics, the admission values, the comorbidities and the severity of respiratory distress, the Bayesian Network analysis was applied. This analysis confirmed the influence of creatinine and CRP on the severity of respiratory distress.

Thromboembolism risk among patients with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia and COVID-19.

PURPOSE: Individuals with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia carry an increased risk for adverse clinical outcome in case of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether this risk is, at least in part, modulated by an increase of thromboembolic complications. METHODS: We prospectively followed 180 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to the Internal Medicine Units of San Raffaele Hospital. Data from 11 out of 180 patients were considered incomplete and excluded from the analysis. We analysed inflammation, tissue damage biomarkers, hemostatic parameters, thrombotic events (TEs) and clinical outcome according to the presence of diabetes/stress hyperglycemia. RESULTS: Among 169 patients, 51 (30.2%) had diabetes/stress hyperglycemia. Diabetes/stress hyperglycemia and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were associated with increased inflammation and tissue damage circulating markers, higher D-dimer levels, increased prothrombin time and lower antithrombin III activity. Forty-eight venous and 10 arterial TEs were identified in 49 (29%) patients. Diabetes/stress hyperglycemia (HR 2.71, p = 0.001), fasting blood glucose (HR 4.32, p < 0.001) and glucose variability (HR 1.6, p < 0.009) were all associated with an increased risk of thromboembolic complication. TEs significantly increased the risk for an adverse clinical outcome only in the presence of diabetes/stress hyperglycemia (HR 3.05, p = 0.010) or fasting blood glucose ≥7 mmol/L (HR 3.07, p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: Thromboembolism risk is higher among patients with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia and COVID-19 pneumonia and is associated to poor clinical outcome. In case of SARS-Cov-2 infection patients with diabetes/stress hyperglycemia could be considered for a more intensive prophylactic anticoagulation regimen.

Low Levels of Vitamin D Are Associated With Markers of Immuno-Inflammatory Response and Clinical Outcome in Covid-19

High prevalence of vitamin D (VD) deficiency in COVID-19 patients was reported by several studies. Since VD is a key regulating factor of both innate and adaptive immunity, it was hypothesized that VD deficiency may predispose to SARS-CoV-2 infection and lower levels of VD could be related to increased COVID-19 severity and worse outcome risks. However, to date, only few studies partially investigated the relationship between VD and inflammatory and immune response and clinical features of COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of vitamin D levels on COVID-19 inflammatory activity, clinical pattern and disease severity. Patients admitted to San Raffaele University Hospital for COVID-19 from February 2020 were enrolled in this study. We excluded patients with comorbidities and therapies influencing VD metabolism. 25OH-Vitamin D levels were evaluated at admission in hospital and VD insufficiency and deficiency were defined as VD level below 30 ng/mL and 20 ng/mL, respectively. A total of 88 patients were included in the study. Median (IQR) VD levels were 16.3 (11.2–23.9) ng/mL. VD insufficiency and deficiency were found in 88.6% and in 68.2% of patients, respectively. Linear regression analyses showed a positive correlation between VD levels and PaO2/FiO2 ratio (p=0.019;r=0.254), and negative correlations between VD levels and Neutrophil/Lymphocyte (N/L) ratio (p=0.04;r=-0.19), C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (p=0.047;r=-0.18) and Interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels (p=0.04;r=-0.22). Lower VD levels were found in patients affected by severe disease (needs for high-flow oxygen therapy and/or noninvasive mechanical ventilation, admitted to ICU and/or dead) than non-severe patients (13.4 ng/mL [10.37–19.15] vs 18.45 ng/mL [15.15–24.95];p=0.007). Moreover, patients with VD deficiency had higher levels of CRP, LDH, IL-6, IFN-gamma (p=0.04, p=0.01, p=0.002, p=0.04;respectively), lower PaO2/FiO2 and higher N/L ratios (p=0.008, p=0.004;respectively), and higher rate of severe disease (65% vs 39%, p=0.02), as compared to VD non-deficient ones. In conclusion, low VD levels are widely found in hospitalized COVID-19 and may lead to increased disease severity through an excessive immune-inflammatory response. Our data suggest that reaching adequate vitamin D levels in risky population may contribute to prevention of COVID-19 occurrence and severity.

Clinical factors associated with death in 3044 COVID-19 patients managed in internal medicine wards in Italy: results from the SIMI-COVID-19 study of the Italian Society of Internal Medicine (SIMI).

During the COVID-19 2020 outbreak, a large body of data has been provided on general management and outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Yet, relatively little is known on characteristics and outcome of patients managed in Internal Medicine Units (IMU). To address this gap, the Italian Society of Internal Medicine has conducted a nationwide cohort multicentre study on death outcome in adult COVID-19 patients admitted and managed in IMU. This study assessed 3044 COVID-19 patients at 41 referral hospitals across Italy from February 3rd to May 8th 2020. Demographics, comorbidities, organ dysfunction, treatment, and outcomes including death were assessed. During the study period, 697 patients (22.9%) were transferred to intensive care units, and 351 died in IMU (death rate 14.9%). At admission, factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR 2.46, p = 0.000), productive cough (OR 2.04, p = 0.000), pre-existing chronic heart failure (OR 1.58, p = 0.017) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 1.17, p = 0.048), the number of comorbidities (OR 1.34, p = 0.000) and polypharmacy (OR 1.20, p = 0.000). Of note, up to 40% of elderly patients did not report fever at admission. Decreasing PaO2/FiO2 ratio at admission was strongly inversely associated with survival. The use of conventional oxygen supplementation increased with the number of pre-existing comorbidities, but it did not associate with better survival in patients with PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 100. The latter, significantly benefited by the early use of non-invasive mechanical ventilation. Our study identified PaO2/FiO2 ratio at admission and comorbidity as the main alert signs to inform clinical decisions and resource allocation in non-critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to IMU.

Role of blood pressure dysregulation on kidney and mortality outcomes in COVID-19. Kidney, blood pressure and mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: In February 2020 the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection started spreading throughout Italy, hitting the Lombardy region very hard. Despite the high diffusion, only a subset of patients developed severe COVID-19: around 25% of them developed acute kidney injury (AKI) and one-third of them died. Elderly patients and patients with high comorbidities were identified as being at higher risk of severe COVID-19. METHODS: Our prospective observational cohort study includes 392 consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Milan (median age 67 years, 75% male). We evaluated the relationship between blood pressure at presentation, presence of AKI at Emergency Department admission and during hospitalization, and total in-hospital mortality (24%). RESULTS: Although 58% of our study patients reported a history of hypertension (HYP) (86% on treatment), 30% presented with low blood pressure levels. Only 5.5% were diagnosed with AKI on admission; 75% of hypertensive patients discontinued therapy during hospitalization (only 20% were on treatment at discharge). Gender and hypertension were strongly associated with AKI at admission (odds ratio 11). Blood pressure was inversely correlated with increased risk of AKI upon admission, regardless of the severity of respiratory distress. Age over 65, history of hypertension, and severity of respiratory distress were the main predictors of AKI, which developed in 34.7% of cases during hospitalization. AKI was associated with increased in-hospital mortality. Hypertension and low blood pressure at presentation were the main predictors of in-hospital mortality, together with age over 65, baseline pulmonary involvement, and severity of illness. CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for COVID-19, hypertension and low blood pressure at presentation are important risk factors for AKI and mortality. Early reduction of antihypertensive therapy may improve outcomes in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Incidence of deep venous thrombosis in COVID-19 hospitalized patients during the first peak of the Italian outbreak.

OBJECTIVES: A high rate of thrombotic events has been reported in COVID-19 population. The study aims to assess the incidence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in COVID-19 patients admitted to a single tertiary hospital. METHODS: From April 2nd to April 18th, 2020, hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were screened by lower limb duplex ultrasound (DUS). Patients were on (low molecular weight heparin) LMWH prophylaxis in medical wards, and on therapeutic anticoagulation in intensive care unit (ICU). DVT risk factors, reported by the Padua prediction score and blood tests, were retrieved from institutional electronic charts. The study primary endpoint was the incidence of DVT in the in-hospital COVID-19 population and its association with clinical and laboratory risk factors. The secondary endpoint was the association of DVT with mortality. RESULTS: Two hundred patients (median age 62 years, 72% male, 40 in ICU) received DUS screening. DVT was observed in 29 patients (14.5%), with proximal extension in 16 patients, and in association with symptoms in four patients. The DVT rate was similar in ICU (12.5%) and non-ICU patients (15%). Eighty-seven patients underwent a computed tomography angiography (CTA) that showed pulmonary embolism in 35 patients (40.2%) not associated with DVT in 25/35 cases (71.4%). DVT in the ten patients with pulmonary embolism were symptomatic in four and with a proximal localization in eight cases. A D-dimer level ≥5 mg/l at admission was predictive of DVT (OR 1.02; IC95% 1.03-1.16; p = .003). At the multivariate analysis in-hospital mortality was predicted by age (OR 1.06; 95% CI 0.02-1.15; p = .004) and by being an ICU patient (OR 1.23; 95% CI 0.30-2.25; p = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Despite LMWH prophylaxis or full anticoagulant therapy, the incidence of DVT, mainly asymptomatic, in hospitalized COVID-19 patients was 14.5%. Further research should focus on the appropriate antithrombotic therapy for COVID-19 patients.